Raiders @ Patriots
Raiders
PatriotsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Raiders beat the Patriots 20-13 on the road. The market closed with Raiders at +120 on the moneyline and the total at 44.5. This was an NFL 2025 week 1 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Raiders betting trends · Patriots betting trends · all NFL games
Raiders vs Patriots betting splits
Where was the money on Raiders vs Patriots?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Raiders | 86% | 84% | +2.5 (-107) |
| Patriots | 14% | 16% | -2.5 (-115) | |
| Total | Over | 23% | 32% | O 44.5 (-105) |
| Under | 77% | 68% | U 44.5 (-115) | |
| Moneyline | Raiders | 25% | 44% | +120 |
| Patriots | 75% | 56% | -148 |
86% of spread tickets and 84% of spread money were on the Raiders, so the Raiders drew more tickets than money and the average Patriots bet was larger.
77% of total tickets and 68% of total money were on the under, so the under drew more tickets than money and the average over bet was larger.
75% of moneyline tickets and 56% of moneyline money were on the Patriots, so the Patriots drew more tickets than money and the average Raiders bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Raiders vs Patriots?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Patriots) | -2.5 | -2.5 | 0 |
| Total | 44 | 44.5 | +0.5 |
The Patriots were -2.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed -2.5: the spread has not moved.
The total was 44 24 hours before kickoff and closed 44.5, a 0.5-point move toward the over.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Raiders vs Patriots line move?
The spread did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (Patriots -2.5) even with 84% of the spread money on the Raiders. The total moved 0.5 points toward the over (44 to 44.5) even though 68% of the total money sits on the under; the over holds 32% of the money and 23% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.