Panthers @ Jaguars
Panthers
JaguarsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Jaguars beat the Panthers 26-10 at home. The market closed with Panthers at +184 on the moneyline and the total at 45.5. This was an NFL 2025 week 1 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Panthers betting trends · Jaguars betting trends · all NFL games
Panthers vs Jaguars betting splits
Where was the money on Panthers vs Jaguars?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Panthers | 54% | 45% | +4.5 (-115) |
| Jaguars | 46% | 55% | -4.5 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 12% | 20% | O 45.5 (-110) |
| Under | 88% | 80% | U 45.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Panthers | 14% | 15% | +184 |
| Jaguars | 86% | 85% | -220 |
The Panthers held 54% of spread tickets but only 45% of the money; 55% of spread money was on the Jaguars with 46% of tickets, so the average Jaguars bet was larger.
88% of total tickets and 80% of total money were on the under, so the under drew more tickets than money and the average over bet was larger.
86% of moneyline tickets and 85% of moneyline money were on the Jaguars, so the Jaguars drew more tickets than money and the average Panthers bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Panthers vs Jaguars?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Jaguars) | -3.5 | -4.5 | -1 |
| Total | 46.5 | 45.5 | -1 |
The Jaguars were -3.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed -4.5, a 1-point move toward the Jaguars.
The total was 46.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed 45.5, a 1-point move toward the under.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Panthers vs Jaguars line move?
The spread moved 1 point toward the Jaguars (Jaguars -3.5 to Jaguars -4.5), the side holding 55% of the spread money and 46% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 1 point toward the under (46.5 to 45.5), the side holding 80% of the total money and 88% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.