Dolphins @ Colts
Dolphins
ColtsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Colts beat the Dolphins 33-8 at home. The market closed with Dolphins at +108 on the moneyline and the total at 47. This was an NFL 2025 week 1 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Dolphins betting trends · Colts betting trends · all NFL games
Dolphins vs Colts betting splits
Where was the money on Dolphins vs Colts?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Dolphins | 79% | 89% | +1.5 (-111) |
| Colts | 21% | 11% | -1.5 (-108) | |
| Total | Over | 14% | 19% | O 47 (-115) |
| Under | 86% | 81% | U 47 (-106) | |
| Moneyline | Dolphins | 55% | 69% | +108 |
| Colts | 45% | 31% | -115 |
79% of spread tickets and 89% of spread money were on the Dolphins, so the average Dolphins bet was larger than the average Colts bet.
86% of total tickets and 81% of total money were on the under, so the under drew more tickets than money and the average over bet was larger.
55% of moneyline tickets and 69% of moneyline money were on the Dolphins, so the average Dolphins bet was larger than the average Colts bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Dolphins vs Colts?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Colts) | -1.5 | -1.5 | 0 |
| Total | 46.5 | 47 | +0.5 |
The Colts were -1.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed -1.5: the spread has not moved.
The total was 46.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed 47, a 0.5-point move toward the over.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Dolphins vs Colts line move?
The spread did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (Colts -1.5) even with 89% of the spread money on the Dolphins. The total moved 0.5 points toward the over (46.5 to 47) even though 81% of the total money sits on the under; the over holds 19% of the money and 14% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.