Buccaneers @ Falcons
Buccaneers
FalconsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Buccaneers beat the Falcons 23-20 on the road. The market closed with Buccaneers at -110 on the moneyline and the total at 47.5. This was an NFL 2025 week 1 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Buccaneers betting trends · Falcons betting trends · all NFL games
Buccaneers vs Falcons betting splits
Where was the money on Buccaneers vs Falcons?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Buccaneers | 30% | 25% | -1.5 (-109) |
| Falcons | 70% | 75% | +1.5 (-117) | |
| Total | Over | 16% | 30% | O 47.5 (-110) |
| Under | 84% | 70% | U 47.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Buccaneers | 66% | 92% | -110 |
| Falcons | 34% | 8% | -108 |
70% of spread tickets and 75% of spread money were on the Falcons, so the average Falcons bet was larger than the average Buccaneers bet.
84% of total tickets and 70% of total money were on the under, so the under drew more tickets than money and the average over bet was larger.
66% of moneyline tickets and 92% of moneyline money were on the Buccaneers, so the average Buccaneers bet was larger than the average Falcons bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Buccaneers vs Falcons?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Falcons) | +1.5 | +1.5 | 0 |
| Total | 47.5 | 47.5 | 0 |
The Buccaneers were -1.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed -1.5: the spread has not moved.
The total was 47.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed 47.5: it has not moved.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Buccaneers vs Falcons line move?
The spread did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (Falcons +1.5) even with 75% of the spread money on the Falcons. The total did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (47.5) even with 70% of the total money on the under. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.