Lions @ Packers
Lions
PackersArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Packers beat the Lions 27-13 at home. The market closed with Lions at -105 on the moneyline and the total at 48. This was an NFL 2025 week 1 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Lions betting trends · Packers betting trends · all NFL games
Lions vs Packers betting splits
Where was the money on Lions vs Packers?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Lions | 91% | 94% | +1.5 (-115) |
| Packers | 9% | 6% | -1.5 (-105) | |
| Total | Over | 12% | 34% | O 48 (-110) |
| Under | 88% | 66% | U 48 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Lions | 44% | 71% | -105 |
| Packers | 56% | 29% | -115 |
91% of spread tickets and 94% of spread money were on the Lions, so the average Lions bet was larger than the average Packers bet.
88% of total tickets and 66% of total money were on the under, so the under drew more tickets than money and the average over bet was larger.
The Packers held 56% of moneyline tickets but only 29% of the money; 71% of moneyline money was on the Lions with 44% of tickets, so the average Lions bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Lions vs Packers?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Packers) | -2.5 | -1.5 | +1 |
| Total | 47.5 | 48 | +0.5 |
The Packers were -2.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed -1.5, a 1-point move toward the Lions.
The total was 47.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed 48, a 0.5-point move toward the over.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Lions vs Packers line move?
The spread moved 1 point toward the Lions (Packers -2.5 to Packers -1.5), the side holding 94% of the spread money and 91% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 0.5 points toward the over (47.5 to 48) even though 66% of the total money sits on the under; the over holds 34% of the money and 12% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.