Ravens @ Bills
Ravens
BillsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Bills beat the Ravens 41-40 at home. The market closed with Ravens at -124 on the moneyline and the total at 51.5. This was an NFL 2025 week 1 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Ravens betting trends · Bills betting trends · all NFL games
Ravens vs Bills betting splits
Where was the money on Ravens vs Bills?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Ravens | 48% | 66% | -1.5 (-105) |
| Bills | 52% | 34% | +1.5 (-115) | |
| Total | Over | 9% | 42% | O 51.5 (-115) |
| Under | 91% | 58% | U 51.5 (-100) | |
| Moneyline | Ravens | 56% | 88% | -124 |
| Bills | 44% | 12% | +105 |
The Bills held 52% of spread tickets but only 34% of the money; 66% of spread money was on the Ravens with 48% of tickets, so the average Ravens bet was larger.
91% of total tickets and 58% of total money were on the under, so the under drew more tickets than money and the average over bet was larger.
56% of moneyline tickets and 88% of moneyline money were on the Ravens, so the average Ravens bet was larger than the average Bills bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Ravens vs Bills?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Bills) | +1.5 | +1.5 | 0 |
| Total | 50.5 | 51.5 | +1 |
The Ravens were -1.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed -1.5: the spread has not moved.
The total was 50.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed 51.5, a 1-point move toward the over.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Ravens vs Bills line move?
The spread did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (Bills +1.5) even with 66% of the spread money on the Ravens. The total moved 1 point toward the over (50.5 to 51.5) even though 58% of the total money sits on the under; the over holds 42% of the money and 9% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.