Commanders @ Packers
Commanders
PackersArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Packers beat the Commanders 27-18 at home. The market closed with Commanders at +150 on the moneyline and the total at 48.5. This was an NFL 2025 week 2 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Commanders betting trends · Packers betting trends · all NFL games
Commanders vs Packers betting splits
Where was the money on Commanders vs Packers?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Commanders | 54% | 49% | +3 (-105) |
| Packers | 46% | 51% | -3 (-115) | |
| Total | Over | 4% | 29% | O 48.5 (-105) |
| Under | 96% | 71% | U 48.5 (-105) | |
| Moneyline | Commanders | 17% | 27% | +150 |
| Packers | 83% | 73% | -180 |
The Commanders held 54% of spread tickets but only 49% of the money; 51% of spread money was on the Packers with 46% of tickets, so the average Packers bet was larger.
96% of total tickets and 71% of total money were on the under, so the under drew more tickets than money and the average over bet was larger.
83% of moneyline tickets and 73% of moneyline money were on the Packers, so the Packers drew more tickets than money and the average Commanders bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Commanders vs Packers?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Packers) | -3.5 | -3 | +0.5 |
| Total | 48.5 | 48.5 | 0 |
The Packers were -3.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed -3, a 0.5-point move toward the Commanders.
The total was 48.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed 48.5: it has not moved.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Commanders vs Packers line move?
The spread moved 0.5 points toward the Commanders (Packers -3.5 to Packers -3) even though 51% of the spread money sits on the Packers; the Commanders hold 49% of the money and 54% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (48.5) even with 71% of the total money on the under. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.