Patriots @ Dolphins
Patriots
DolphinsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Patriots beat the Dolphins 33-27 on the road. The market closed with Patriots at +110 on the moneyline and the total at 43.5. This was an NFL 2025 week 2 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Patriots betting trends · Dolphins betting trends · all NFL games
Patriots vs Dolphins betting splits
Where was the money on Patriots vs Dolphins?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Patriots | 48% | 68% | +2.5 (-115) |
| Dolphins | 52% | 32% | -2.5 (-107) | |
| Total | Over | 8% | 8% | O 43.5 (-108) |
| Under | 92% | 92% | U 43.5 (-111) | |
| Moneyline | Patriots | 28% | 52% | +110 |
| Dolphins | 72% | 48% | -132 |
The Dolphins held 52% of spread tickets but only 32% of the money; 68% of spread money was on the Patriots with 48% of tickets, so the average Patriots bet was larger.
92% of total tickets and 92% of total money were on the under, with money and tickets in step.
The Dolphins held 72% of moneyline tickets but only 48% of the money; 52% of moneyline money was on the Patriots with 28% of tickets, so the average Patriots bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Patriots vs Dolphins?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Dolphins) | -2.5 | -2.5 | 0 |
| Total | 43.5 | 43.5 | 0 |
The Dolphins were -2.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed -2.5: the spread has not moved.
The total was 43.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed 43.5: it has not moved.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Patriots vs Dolphins line move?
The spread did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (Dolphins -2.5) even with 68% of the spread money on the Patriots. The total did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (43.5) even with 92% of the total money on the under. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.