Dolphins @ Bills
Dolphins
BillsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Bills beat the Dolphins 31-21 at home. The market closed with Dolphins at +550 on the moneyline and the total at 50.5. This was an NFL 2025 week 3 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Dolphins betting trends · Bills betting trends · all NFL games
Dolphins vs Bills betting splits
Where was the money on Dolphins vs Bills?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Dolphins | 29% | 51% | +11.5 (-115) |
| Bills | 71% | 49% | -11.5 (-105) | |
| Total | Over | 20% | 73% | O 50.5 (-110) |
| Under | 80% | 27% | U 50.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Dolphins | 4% | 3% | +550 |
| Bills | 96% | 97% | -800 |
The Bills held 71% of spread tickets but only 49% of the money; 51% of spread money was on the Dolphins with 29% of tickets, so the average Dolphins bet was larger.
The under held 80% of total tickets but only 27% of the money; 73% of total money was on the over with 20% of tickets, so the average over bet was larger.
96% of moneyline tickets and 97% of moneyline money were on the Bills, so the average Bills bet was larger than the average Dolphins bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Dolphins vs Bills?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Bills) | -12.5 | -11.5 | +1 |
| Total | 49.5 | 50.5 | +1 |
The Bills were -12.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed -11.5, a 1-point move toward the Dolphins.
The total was 49.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed 50.5, a 1-point move toward the over.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Dolphins vs Bills line move?
The spread moved 1 point toward the Dolphins (Bills -12.5 to Bills -11.5), the side holding 51% of the spread money and 29% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 1 point toward the over (49.5 to 50.5), the side holding 73% of the total money and 20% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.