Texans @ Jaguars
Texans
JaguarsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Jaguars beat the Texans 17-10 at home. The market closed with Texans at -100 on the moneyline and the total at 42.5. This was an NFL 2025 week 3 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Texans betting trends · Jaguars betting trends · all NFL games
Texans vs Jaguars betting splits
Where was the money on Texans vs Jaguars?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texans | 55% | 86% | +1.5 (-115) |
| Jaguars | 45% | 14% | -1.5 (-105) | |
| Total | Over | 26% | 46% | O 42.5 (-115) |
| Under | 74% | 54% | U 42.5 (-106) | |
| Moneyline | Texans | 43% | 59% | -100 |
| Jaguars | 57% | 41% | -120 |
55% of spread tickets and 86% of spread money were on the Texans, so the average Texans bet was larger than the average Jaguars bet.
74% of total tickets and 54% of total money were on the under, so the under drew more tickets than money and the average over bet was larger.
The Jaguars held 57% of moneyline tickets but only 41% of the money; 59% of moneyline money was on the Texans with 43% of tickets, so the average Texans bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Texans vs Jaguars?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Jaguars) | -1.5 | -1.5 | 0 |
| Total | 43.5 | 42.5 | -1 |
The Jaguars were -1.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed -1.5: the spread has not moved.
The total was 43.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed 42.5, a 1-point move toward the under.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Texans vs Jaguars line move?
The spread did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (Jaguars -1.5) even with 86% of the spread money on the Texans. The total moved 1 point toward the under (43.5 to 42.5), the side holding 54% of the total money and 74% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.