Commanders @ Chargers
Commanders
ChargersArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Commanders beat the Chargers 27-10 on the road. The market closed with Commanders at +140 on the moneyline and the total at 48.5. This was an NFL 2025 week 5 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Commanders betting trends · Chargers betting trends · all NFL games
Commanders vs Chargers betting splits
Where was the money on Commanders vs Chargers?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Commanders | 46% | 38% | +3 (-108) |
| Chargers | 54% | 62% | -3 (-111) | |
| Total | Over | 30% | 26% | O 48.5 (-110) |
| Under | 70% | 74% | U 48.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Commanders | 12% | 12% | +140 |
| Chargers | 88% | 88% | -164 |
54% of spread tickets and 62% of spread money were on the Chargers, so the average Chargers bet was larger than the average Commanders bet.
70% of total tickets and 74% of total money were on the under, so the average under bet was larger than the average over bet.
88% of moneyline tickets and 88% of moneyline money were on the Chargers, with money and tickets in step.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Commanders vs Chargers?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Chargers) | -3 | -3 | 0 |
| Total | 47.5 | 48.5 | +1 |
The Chargers were -3 24 hours before kickoff and closed -3: the spread has not moved.
The total was 47.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed 48.5, a 1-point move toward the over.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Commanders vs Chargers line move?
The spread did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (Chargers -3) even with 62% of the spread money on the Chargers. The total moved 1 point toward the over (47.5 to 48.5) even though 74% of the total money sits on the under; the over holds 26% of the money and 30% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.