Patriots @ Bills
Patriots
BillsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Patriots beat the Bills 23-20 on the road. The market closed with Patriots at +325 on the moneyline and the total at 48.5. This was an NFL 2025 week 5 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Patriots betting trends · Bills betting trends · all NFL games
Patriots vs Bills betting splits
Where was the money on Patriots vs Bills?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Patriots | 32% | 52% | +7.5 (-110) |
| Bills | 68% | 48% | -7.5 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 40% | 78% | O 48.5 (-118) |
| Under | 60% | 22% | U 48.5 (-107) | |
| Moneyline | Patriots | 3% | 8% | +325 |
| Bills | 97% | 92% | -430 |
The Bills held 68% of spread tickets but only 48% of the money; 52% of spread money was on the Patriots with 32% of tickets, so the average Patriots bet was larger.
The under held 60% of total tickets but only 22% of the money; 78% of total money was on the over with 40% of tickets, so the average over bet was larger.
97% of moneyline tickets and 92% of moneyline money were on the Bills, so the Bills drew more tickets than money and the average Patriots bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Patriots vs Bills?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Bills) | -8.5 | -7.5 | +1 |
| Total | 49.5 | 48.5 | -1 |
The Bills were -8.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed -7.5, a 1-point move toward the Patriots.
The total was 49.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed 48.5, a 1-point move toward the under.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Patriots vs Bills line move?
The spread moved 1 point toward the Patriots (Bills -8.5 to Bills -7.5), the side holding 52% of the spread money and 32% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 1 point toward the under (49.5 to 48.5) even though 78% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 22% of the money and 60% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.