Chiefs @ Jaguars
Chiefs
JaguarsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Jaguars beat the Chiefs 31-28 at home. The market closed with Chiefs at -202 on the moneyline and the total at 45.5. This was an NFL 2025 week 5 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Chiefs betting trends · Jaguars betting trends · all NFL games
Chiefs vs Jaguars betting splits
Where was the money on Chiefs vs Jaguars?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Chiefs | 62% | 55% | -3.5 (-105) |
| Jaguars | 38% | 45% | +3.5 (-118) | |
| Total | Over | 64% | 65% | O 45.5 (-112) |
| Under | 36% | 35% | U 45.5 (-108) | |
| Moneyline | Chiefs | 90% | 92% | -202 |
| Jaguars | 10% | 8% | +165 |
62% of spread tickets and 55% of spread money were on the Chiefs, so the Chiefs drew more tickets than money and the average Jaguars bet was larger.
64% of total tickets and 65% of total money were on the over, so the average over bet was larger than the average under bet.
90% of moneyline tickets and 92% of moneyline money were on the Chiefs, so the average Chiefs bet was larger than the average Jaguars bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Chiefs vs Jaguars?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Jaguars) | +3.5 | +3.5 | 0 |
| Total | 45.5 | 45.5 | 0 |
The Chiefs were -3.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed -3.5: the spread has not moved.
The total was 45.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed 45.5: it has not moved.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Chiefs vs Jaguars line move?
The spread did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (Jaguars +3.5) even with 55% of the spread money on the Chiefs. The total did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (45.5) even with 65% of the total money on the over. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.