Lions @ Chiefs
Lions
ChiefsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Chiefs beat the Lions 30-17 at home. The market closed with Lions at +125 on the moneyline and the total at 51.5. This was an NFL 2025 week 6 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Lions betting trends · Chiefs betting trends · all NFL games
Lions vs Chiefs betting splits
Where was the money on Lions vs Chiefs?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Lions | 78% | 70% | +2.5 (-105) |
| Chiefs | 22% | 30% | -2.5 (-115) | |
| Total | Over | 54% | 66% | O 51.5 (-112) |
| Under | 46% | 34% | U 51.5 (-112) | |
| Moneyline | Lions | 60% | 64% | +125 |
| Chiefs | 40% | 36% | -150 |
78% of spread tickets and 70% of spread money were on the Lions, so the Lions drew more tickets than money and the average Chiefs bet was larger.
54% of total tickets and 66% of total money were on the over, so the average over bet was larger than the average under bet.
60% of moneyline tickets and 64% of moneyline money were on the Lions, so the average Lions bet was larger than the average Chiefs bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Lions vs Chiefs?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Chiefs) | -2.5 | -2.5 | 0 |
| Total | 52.5 | 51.5 | -1 |
The Chiefs were -2.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed -2.5: the spread has not moved.
The total was 52.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed 51.5, a 1-point move toward the under.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Lions vs Chiefs line move?
The spread did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (Chiefs -2.5) even with 70% of the spread money on the Lions. The total moved 1 point toward the under (52.5 to 51.5) even though 66% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 34% of the money and 46% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.