Bills @ Falcons
Bills
FalconsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Falcons beat the Bills 24-14 at home. The market closed with Bills at -202 on the moneyline and the total at 49.5. This was an NFL 2025 week 6 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Bills betting trends · Falcons betting trends · all NFL games
Bills vs Falcons betting splits
Where was the money on Bills vs Falcons?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bills | 68% | 42% | -3.5 (-115) |
| Falcons | 32% | 58% | +3.5 (-105) | |
| Total | Over | 39% | 48% | O 49.5 (-114) |
| Under | 61% | 52% | U 49.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Bills | 93% | 92% | -202 |
| Falcons | 7% | 8% | +169 |
The Bills held 68% of spread tickets but only 42% of the money; 58% of spread money was on the Falcons with 32% of tickets, so the average Falcons bet was larger.
61% of total tickets and 52% of total money were on the under, so the under drew more tickets than money and the average over bet was larger.
93% of moneyline tickets and 92% of moneyline money were on the Bills, so the Bills drew more tickets than money and the average Falcons bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Bills vs Falcons?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Falcons) | +4 | +3.5 | -0.5 |
| Total | 50 | 49.5 | -0.5 |
The Bills were -4 24 hours before kickoff and closed -3.5, a 0.5-point move toward the Falcons.
The total was 50 24 hours before kickoff and closed 49.5, a 0.5-point move toward the under.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Bills vs Falcons line move?
The spread moved 0.5 points toward the Falcons (Falcons +4 to Falcons +3.5), the side holding 58% of the spread money and 32% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 0.5 points toward the under (50 to 49.5), the side holding 52% of the total money and 61% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.