Bears @ Commanders
Bears
CommandersArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Bears beat the Commanders 25-24 on the road. The market closed with Bears at +215 on the moneyline and the total at 49. This was an NFL 2025 week 6 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Bears betting trends · Commanders betting trends · all NFL games
Bears vs Commanders betting splits
Where was the money on Bears vs Commanders?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bears | 54% | 66% | +5.5 (-110) |
| Commanders | 46% | 34% | -5.5 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 31% | 45% | O 49 (-110) |
| Under | 69% | 55% | U 49 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Bears | 15% | 28% | +215 |
| Commanders | 85% | 72% | -265 |
54% of spread tickets and 66% of spread money were on the Bears, so the average Bears bet was larger than the average Commanders bet.
69% of total tickets and 55% of total money were on the under, so the under drew more tickets than money and the average over bet was larger.
85% of moneyline tickets and 72% of moneyline money were on the Commanders, so the Commanders drew more tickets than money and the average Bears bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Bears vs Commanders?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Commanders) | -5.5 | -5.5 | 0 |
| Total | 49.5 | 49 | -0.5 |
The Commanders were -5.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed -5.5: the spread has not moved.
The total was 49.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed 49, a 0.5-point move toward the under.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Bears vs Commanders line move?
The spread did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (Commanders -5.5) even with 66% of the spread money on the Bears. The total moved 0.5 points toward the under (49.5 to 49), the side holding 55% of the total money and 69% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.