Jets @ Patriots
Jets
PatriotsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Patriots beat the Jets 27-14 at home. The market closed with Jets at +591 on the moneyline and the total at 43.5. This was an NFL 2025 week 11 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Jets betting trends · Patriots betting trends · all NFL games
Jets vs Patriots betting splits
Where was the money on Jets vs Patriots?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Jets | 41% | 38% | +12.5 (-110) |
| Patriots | 59% | 62% | -12.5 (-115) | |
| Total | Over | 57% | 51% | O 43.5 (-105) |
| Under | 43% | 49% | U 43.5 (-103) | |
| Moneyline | Jets | 10% | 32% | +591 |
| Patriots | 90% | 68% | -869 |
59% of spread tickets and 62% of spread money were on the Patriots, so the average Patriots bet was larger than the average Jets bet.
57% of total tickets and 51% of total money were on the over, so the over drew more tickets than money and the average under bet was larger.
90% of moneyline tickets and 68% of moneyline money were on the Patriots, so the Patriots drew more tickets than money and the average Jets bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Jets vs Patriots?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Patriots) | -13 | -12.5 | +0.5 |
| Total | 43 | 43.5 | +0.5 |
The Patriots were -13 24 hours before kickoff and closed -12.5, a 0.5-point move toward the Jets.
The total was 43 24 hours before kickoff and closed 43.5, a 0.5-point move toward the over.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Jets vs Patriots line move?
The spread moved 0.5 points toward the Jets (Patriots -13 to Patriots -12.5) even though 62% of the spread money sits on the Patriots; the Jets hold 38% of the money and 41% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total moved 0.5 points toward the over (43 to 43.5), the side holding 51% of the total money and 57% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.