Bills @ Texans
Bills
TexansArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Texans beat the Bills 23-19 at home. The market closed with Bills at -240 on the moneyline and the total at 44. This was an NFL 2025 week 12 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Bills betting trends · Texans betting trends · all NFL games
Bills vs Texans betting splits
Where was the money on Bills vs Texans?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bills | 73% | 66% | -4.5 (-110) |
| Texans | 27% | 34% | +4.5 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 65% | 65% | O 44 (-112) |
| Under | 35% | 35% | U 44 (-107) | |
| Moneyline | Bills | 92% | 84% | -240 |
| Texans | 8% | 16% | +197 |
73% of spread tickets and 66% of spread money were on the Bills, so the Bills drew more tickets than money and the average Texans bet was larger.
65% of total tickets and 65% of total money were on the over, with money and tickets in step.
92% of moneyline tickets and 84% of moneyline money were on the Bills, so the Bills drew more tickets than money and the average Texans bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Bills vs Texans?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Texans) | +6 | +4.5 | -1.5 |
| Total | 43.5 | 44 | +0.5 |
The Bills were -6 24 hours before kickoff and closed -4.5, a 1.5-point move toward the Texans.
The total was 43.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed 44, a 0.5-point move toward the over.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Bills vs Texans line move?
The spread moved 1.5 points toward the Texans (Texans +6 to Texans +4.5) even though 66% of the spread money sits on the Bills; the Texans hold 34% of the money and 27% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total moved 0.5 points toward the over (43.5 to 44), the side holding 65% of the total money and 65% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.