Broncos @ Commanders
Broncos
CommandersArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Broncos beat the Commanders 27-26 on the road. The market closed with Broncos at -300 on the moneyline and the total at 43.5. This was an NFL 2025 week 13 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Broncos betting trends · Commanders betting trends · all NFL games
Broncos vs Commanders betting splits
Where was the money on Broncos vs Commanders?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Broncos | 77% | 77% | -6 (-110) |
| Commanders | 23% | 23% | +6 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 49% | 48% | O 43.5 (-108) |
| Under | 51% | 52% | U 43.5 (-112) | |
| Moneyline | Broncos | 94% | 86% | -300 |
| Commanders | 6% | 14% | +240 |
77% of spread tickets and 77% of spread money were on the Broncos, with money and tickets in step.
51% of total tickets and 52% of total money were on the under, so the average under bet was larger than the average over bet.
94% of moneyline tickets and 86% of moneyline money were on the Broncos, so the Broncos drew more tickets than money and the average Commanders bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Broncos vs Commanders?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Commanders) | +6.5 | +6 | -0.5 |
| Total | 43.5 | 43.5 | 0 |
The Broncos opened -6.5 and closed -6, a 0.5-point move toward the Commanders.
The total opened 43.5 and closed 43.5: it has not moved.
Why the line moved
Why did the Broncos vs Commanders line move?
The spread moved 0.5 points toward the Commanders (Commanders +6.5 to Commanders +6) even though 77% of the spread money sits on the Broncos; the Commanders hold 23% of the money and 23% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total did not move from its opening number (43.5) even with 52% of the total money on the under. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.