Falcons @ Buccaneers
Falcons
BuccaneersArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Falcons beat the Buccaneers 29-28 on the road. The market closed with Falcons at +230 on the moneyline and the total at 43.5. This was an NFL 2025 week 15 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Falcons betting trends · Buccaneers betting trends · all NFL games
Falcons vs Buccaneers betting splits
Where was the money on Falcons vs Buccaneers?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Falcons | 36% | 32% | +6 (-108) |
| Buccaneers | 64% | 68% | -6 (-112) | |
| Total | Over | 66% | 67% | O 43.5 (-110) |
| Under | 34% | 33% | U 43.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Falcons | 13% | 22% | +230 |
| Buccaneers | 87% | 78% | -285 |
64% of spread tickets and 68% of spread money were on the Buccaneers, so the average Buccaneers bet was larger than the average Falcons bet.
66% of total tickets and 67% of total money were on the over, so the average over bet was larger than the average under bet.
87% of moneyline tickets and 78% of moneyline money were on the Buccaneers, so the Buccaneers drew more tickets than money and the average Falcons bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Falcons vs Buccaneers?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Buccaneers) | -5.5 | -6 | -0.5 |
| Total | 44.5 | 43.5 | -1 |
The Buccaneers opened -5.5 and closed -6, a 0.5-point move toward the Buccaneers.
The total opened 44.5 and closed 43.5, a 1-point move toward the under.
Why the line moved
Why did the Falcons vs Buccaneers line move?
The spread moved 0.5 points toward the Buccaneers (Buccaneers -5.5 to Buccaneers -6), the side holding 68% of the spread money and 64% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 1 point toward the under (44.5 to 43.5) even though 67% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 33% of the money and 34% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.