Panthers @ Patriots
Panthers
PatriotsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Patriots beat the Panthers 42-13 at home. The market closed with Panthers at +200 on the moneyline and the total at 42.5. This was an NFL 2025 week 4 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Panthers betting trends · Patriots betting trends · all NFL games
Panthers vs Patriots betting splits
Where was the money on Panthers vs Patriots?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Panthers | 76% | 68% | +5.5 (-110) |
| Patriots | 24% | 32% | -5.5 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 28% | 28% | O 42.5 (-110) |
| Under | 72% | 72% | U 42.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Panthers | 14% | 22% | +200 |
| Patriots | 86% | 78% | -250 |
76% of spread tickets and 68% of spread money were on the Panthers, so the Panthers drew more tickets than money and the average Patriots bet was larger.
72% of total tickets and 72% of total money were on the under, with money and tickets in step.
86% of moneyline tickets and 78% of moneyline money were on the Patriots, so the Patriots drew more tickets than money and the average Panthers bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Panthers vs Patriots?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Patriots) | -5.5 | -5.5 | 0 |
| Total | 43.5 | 42.5 | -1 |
The Patriots were -5.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed -5.5: the spread has not moved.
The total was 43.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed 42.5, a 1-point move toward the under.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Panthers vs Patriots line move?
The spread did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (Patriots -5.5) even with 68% of the spread money on the Panthers. The total moved 1 point toward the under (43.5 to 42.5), the side holding 72% of the total money and 72% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.