Saints @ Bills
Saints
BillsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Bills beat the Saints 31-19 at home. The market closed with Saints at +800 on the moneyline and the total at 48.5. This was an NFL 2025 week 4 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Saints betting trends · Bills betting trends · all NFL games
Saints vs Bills betting splits
Where was the money on Saints vs Bills?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Saints | 30% | 21% | +14.5 (-110) |
| Bills | 70% | 79% | -14.5 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 31% | 34% | O 48.5 (-108) |
| Under | 69% | 66% | U 48.5 (-112) | |
| Moneyline | Saints | 3% | 4% | +800 |
| Bills | 97% | 96% | -1500 |
70% of spread tickets and 79% of spread money were on the Bills, so the average Bills bet was larger than the average Saints bet.
69% of total tickets and 66% of total money were on the under, so the under drew more tickets than money and the average over bet was larger.
97% of moneyline tickets and 96% of moneyline money were on the Bills, so the Bills drew more tickets than money and the average Saints bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Saints vs Bills?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Bills) | -15.5 | -14.5 | +1 |
| Total | 48.5 | 48.5 | 0 |
The Bills were -15.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed -14.5, a 1-point move toward the Saints.
The total was 48.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed 48.5: it has not moved.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Saints vs Bills line move?
The spread moved 1 point toward the Saints (Bills -15.5 to Bills -14.5) even though 79% of the spread money sits on the Bills; the Saints hold 21% of the money and 30% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (48.5) even with 66% of the total money on the under. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.