Commanders @ Chiefs
Commanders
ChiefsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Chiefs beat the Commanders 28-7 at home. The market closed with Commanders at +430 on the moneyline and the total at 48. This was an NFL 2025 week 8 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Commanders betting trends · Chiefs betting trends · all NFL games
Commanders vs Chiefs betting splits
Where was the money on Commanders vs Chiefs?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Commanders | 31% | 40% | +10.5 (-110) |
| Chiefs | 69% | 60% | -10.5 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 67% | 70% | O 48 (-110) |
| Under | 33% | 30% | U 48 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Commanders | 6% | 23% | +430 |
| Chiefs | 94% | 77% | -590 |
69% of spread tickets and 60% of spread money were on the Chiefs, so the Chiefs drew more tickets than money and the average Commanders bet was larger.
67% of total tickets and 70% of total money were on the over, so the average over bet was larger than the average under bet.
94% of moneyline tickets and 77% of moneyline money were on the Chiefs, so the Chiefs drew more tickets than money and the average Commanders bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Commanders vs Chiefs?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Chiefs) | -11.5 | -10.5 | +1 |
| Total | 47.5 | 48 | +0.5 |
The Chiefs were -11.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed -10.5, a 1-point move toward the Commanders.
The total was 47.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed 48, a 0.5-point move toward the over.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Commanders vs Chiefs line move?
The spread moved 1 point toward the Commanders (Chiefs -11.5 to Chiefs -10.5) even though 60% of the spread money sits on the Chiefs; the Commanders hold 40% of the money and 31% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total moved 0.5 points toward the over (47.5 to 48), the side holding 70% of the total money and 67% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.