Packers @ Bears
Packers
BearsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Bears beat the Packers 31-27 at home. The market closed with Packers at -125 on the moneyline and the total at 46.5. This was an NFL 2025 week 1 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Packers betting trends · Bears betting trends · all NFL games
Packers vs Bears betting splits
Where was the money on Packers vs Bears?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Packers | 29% | 28% | -1.5 (-107) |
| Bears | 71% | 72% | +1.5 (-105) | |
| Total | Over | 62% | 60% | O 46.5 (-110) |
| Under | 38% | 40% | U 46.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Packers | 36% | 36% | -125 |
| Bears | 64% | 64% | +105 |
71% of spread tickets and 72% of spread money were on the Bears, so the average Bears bet was larger than the average Packers bet.
62% of total tickets and 60% of total money were on the over, so the over drew more tickets than money and the average under bet was larger.
64% of moneyline tickets and 64% of moneyline money were on the Bears, with money and tickets in step.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Packers vs Bears?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Bears) | +1.5 | +1.5 | 0 |
| Total | 45.5 | 46.5 | +1 |
The Packers opened -1.5 and closed -1.5: the spread has not moved.
The total opened 45.5 and closed 46.5, a 1-point move toward the over.
Why the line moved
Why did the Packers vs Bears line move?
The spread did not move from its opening number (Bears +1.5) even with 72% of the spread money on the Bears. The total moved 1 point toward the over (45.5 to 46.5), the side holding 60% of the total money and 62% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.